Odds On The Supreme Court Decision

The crowd-sourced odds market at Intrade puts the likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning the individual mandate – either in whole or in part – at 76.5%, up .5% since the Court announced on Monday that it would convene once more on Thursday to deliver opinions.

Which got me to thinking about what odds I would give the Court’s decision this week.  And, with the knowledge that one should never listen to someone who predicts, I recall that it hasn’t stopped me before.

So, after having tracked this issue closely – from bill drafting to oral arguments – here is my two cents on what’s coming (though it may not be worth that much…).

Likelihood                                        Action                                    

       45%                       Court strikes down entire Act

       25%                       Court strikes down a portion of the Act

       20%                       Court puts off a decision until ‘harm’ occurs

       10%                       Court upholds entire Act

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